Latest Graphs

fig_1d_2010_12 fig_1c_2010_12 fig7_2010_12 fig8_opec_2010_12

Oil Price

Latest Crude Oil Graphs

The graphs show only incremental crude oil production relative to January 2001 with data from

Update 22/4/2011 The EIA, International Energy Statistics, published Saudi crude oil production revisions for 2010 which are not in line with other data providers IEA, OPEC and JODI EIA_Saudi_crude_revisions_April_2011_vs_IEA_OPEC_JODIThe black curve is the March 2011 version of the EIA data, the red curve revisions done in April 2011. These are very different from the monthly reports of the

IEA (blue)

OPEC (brown)

JODI database (yellow)

Even before the April 2011 update EIA data tended to be too high for 2010


The latest is now:

“Immediate reductions in EIA Energy Data and Analysis Programs Necessitated by FY2011 Funding Cut”

“Terminate updates to EIA’s International Energy Statistics.”

I strongly recommend the reader saves the JPG files on this page as a historic document.


December 2010 version, updated 18/3/2011. Production profiles can be stacked in many different ways, from bottom Fig 1c: decline wedge first, then peaking, Saudi Arabia,growing group, Venezuela and Iraq on top fig_1c_2010_12 Fig 1d: for detailed description, see fig_1d_2010_12 Fig 7: Details of growing group, in August 2008 BTC pipeline attack, conflict in Georgia,  later technical problems  in the ACG oil field. Angola, Brazil, Kazachstan and Azerbaijan are the only 4 countries who managed growth (around 600 Kb/d) since July 2008. All are dependent on offshore oil. fig7_2010_12 Fig 8: Details of OPEC fig8_opec_2010_12 OPEC: Saudi Arabia could not produce more oil in the boom year 2008 than in 2005 non_opec_crude_2010_12 We can clearly see the gradual decline of  Non-OPEC after 2004, although there was a recent recovery, mainly from the US rebouncing from hurricanes.  Russia and other growing countries also have helped  lift the production back to its 2003- 2005 level. Let’s now stack OPEC on top of  Non-OPEC opec_non_opec_2010_12 The subsystem excluding Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Angola (which joined OPEC in December 2006) has come back to its peak level in 2005/06. And looking at the subsystem excluding Angola we see that Saudi Arabia was not able to lift production to 2005 levels. It was Russia and the growing group which did it. We are now on the 3rd hump on the bumpy production plateau (1) 2005, the start year of the peaking,  interrupted by Katrina and followed by decline in Saudi Arabia (2) 2008, the Oilympic peak followed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers (3) 2010, the money printing peak, followed by unrest in North Africa and the ME —————- EIA_Crude_vs_Oil_Price_1997_2010Annual crude production in 2005 and 2010 were basically on the same level but average oil prices in 2010 were 40% higher —————- minor_producers_2010_08 The above graph shows a group of countries labelled “Other” in the International Petroleum Monthly