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Sydney doesn’t need a 2nd airport

We read in the Sydney Morning Herald (23/11/2009)
New airport set for take off

THE Rudd Government is expected to pave the way for the Richmond air force base to be opened up to commercial airline traffic when it releases its long-awaited aviation white paper next month.

http://www.smh.com.au/travel/new-airport-set-for-takeoff-20091122-isv8.html

and in the Hansard:

Mr RUDD—Let us just say to those opposite that this is called planning for long-term infrastructure needs. That is why we have invited the New South Wales government to participate in a joint study to assess options, identify potential sites and evaluate investment strategies for delivering additional airport capacity. The joint study will also look at ways of providing integrated transport solutions for the existing airport as well as any second airport. It will also consider the future of the Badgerys Creek site, given that the government has ruled it out as an option for a second airport. The study’s final terms of reference will be outlined in the aviation white paper, which is expected to be released shortly. That is the proper framework within which we will examine these matters……..

The aviation white paper is scheduled to be released by the end of the year and our commitment to the Australian people is to develop, for the first time, a national aviation policy—something which the previous government did not have. The white paper will set out an aviation strategy for the next generation and the white paper will focus on improving aviation safety and security, making sure we have an economically efficient sector that creates jobs in the short and long term. The government has consulted widely for its white paper through last December’s green paper. That is the proper way in which you consider these things. That is the approach which has been supported by the minister responsible and that is the approach that we will be adopting, as a responsible government, on this nation’s long-term infrastructure needs.

http://www.aph.gov.au/Hansard/reps/dailys/dr231109.pdf

Let’s have a look what the Sydney Airport Master Plan says:

sydneyairportmasterplan_passengerforcast2007_2029

http://www.sydneyairport.com.au/SACL/DownloadDocument.ashx?DocumentID=763

Compare that perpetual growth projection (doubling of air traffic in 15 years) with the latest estimate from Colin Campbell’s response to the Guardian IEA Reporting

cjcampbell2009

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/CJCampbell2009.jpg

Colin describes the history:

I can provide you with some more information on the topic, touching on my own experience. I first became aware of the issue in 1969 in Chicago when I was part of a team making a world evaluation for Amoco (now part of BP). Later when I was managing Fina in Norway, I had the company sponsor a research project on the subject with the Norwegian authorities. We used public reserve data, as I had not then appreciated how unreliable they were.

The results were published as The Golden Century of Oil 1950-2050 (Kluwer Academic). This attracted the interest of Petroconsultants, a company based in Geneva that was used by the international oil companies to assemble a valid database on oil activities around the world including the size of discoveries and drilling statistics. They invited me to redo the study but this time using their comprehensive database of virtually all the world’s fields. I was joined in this project by Jean Laherrère, formerly Exploration Manager of the French oil company TOTAL, who had developed various analytical techniques. The resulting study was published at $50 000 a copy, but was later suppressed under pressure from a major US oil company, which had better remain nameless. However, Petroconsultants co-published a book, The Coming Oil Crisis (Multi-Science), which I wrote summarising the results, and also agreed that Laherrère and I should accept an invitation to write an article for the Scientific American : The End of Cheap Oil (March 1998).

The IEA purchased this book and contacted me, sending an analyst to spend a week going through the data. It was evident that the team within the IEA working on the subject was fully convinced and saw its importance. They then produced a report for the G8 Ministers, meeting in Moscow (International Energy Agency, 1998, World Energy Prospects to 2020; Report to G8 Energy Ministers, March 31 www.iea.org/g8/world/oilsup.htm). The text was bland enough but it contained a critical table showing that oil demand would outpace supply by 2010, save for the entry of an item called Unidentified Unconventional, whose supply was shown to meet as much as 20% of the world’s needs by 2020. Having managed to get it past the G8 Ministers, the IEA team was able to include it in the World Energy Outlook for 1998.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5970#more

Here we are, 11 years later and we are still planning new airports.

Prof. Aleklett’s assessment:

Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for the year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d.

http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges/en/headline-news/the-peak-of-the-oil-age

My submission to the aviation green paper: http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=43

What will take off soon are oil prices, not a 2nd airport for Sydney.

In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil – mostly in the Middle East – would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html

The IEA purchased this book and contacted me, sending an analyst to spend a week going through the data. It was evident that the team within the IEA working on the subject was fully convinced and saw its importance. They then produced a report for the G8 Ministers, meeting in Moscow (International Energy Agency, 1998, World Energy Prospects to 2020; Report to G8 Energy Ministers, March 31 www.iea.org/g8/world/oilsup.htm). The text was bland enough but it contained a critical table showing that oil demand would outpace supply by 2010, save for the entry of an item called Unidentified Unconventional, whose supply was shown to meet as much as 20% of the world’s needs by 2020. Having managed to get it past the G8 Ministers, the IEA team was able to include it in the World Energy Outlook for 1998.

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