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Jeff Brown: Half of post 2005 net oil exports from top 5 exporters will be gone by 2013

This is the 3rd post in a series summarizing the best slides shown at the ASPO 2009 conference http://aspo-usa.com/2009denver Jeff Brown is an independent petroleum geologist and is currently managing an aggressive exploration program looking for “leftover” oil and gas fields in West Central Texas.  http://www.aspo.tv/jeffrey-j.-brown.html

jeffrey_brown_3countries_prod_cons_netexports

He emphasizes 3 points in his slide show entitled “Are we in the early stages of a permanent net oil export crisis?”

(1) The net export decline rate tends to exceed the production decline rate

(2) The net export decline rate tends to accelerate with time

As an example the slide to the left shows the historic rates of change for production, consumption and net oil exports of 3 countries: Indonesia, UK and Egypt which had a combined production peak in 1996.

From that peak, it took just 9 years until their net oil exports were zero in 2005.

uk_egypt_indonesia_net_oil_imports

Do it yourself and check it.

Go onto this web site of the Energy Information Administration

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm

and click on UK. You will get the United Kingdom Energy Profile page.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_time_series.cfm?fips=UK

Click on “View History” and download the “Full series” XLS file. Repeat the same steps for Egypt and Indonesia. With the data in rows 3, 5 and 6 create a graph like this >>

(3) Net export declines tend to be “Front-end loaded,” with the bulk of post-peak net exports being shipped early in the decline phase

This is the example of the top 5 exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and UAE), comprising around half of all exports. 3 scenarios of consumption and production give intersection points for zero exports between 2022 and 2032.

jeffrey_brown_top5exporters jeffrey_brown_top5exports

Most interesting is the following  graph showing how cumulative net oil exports are being depleted over time. It shows that by 2013,  just 4 years away , around half of all post 2005 net oil exports from these 5 countries will have been produced

jeffrey_brown_cumnetoilexports_132gb

This is Jeff’s slide show with more details:

http://aspo-usa.com/2009proceedings/Jeffrey_Brown_Oct_11_2009.pdf

Jeff’s original work which is the basis for this slide show is on the graphoilogy web site:

http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2008/01/quantitative-assessment-of-future-net.html

Another interesting visualization how fast net oil exports are depleting can be found here:

http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2009/06/google-visualization-gadgets-and-top.html

Move the pointer from year to year and see how the oil bubbles shrink. Please note the 89 Gb of net oil exports at 2005 are the middle case of  Sam Foucher’s scenarios while the graph above with 132 Gb is the best case.

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