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Submission Energy White Paper 2009

This is in response to the public consultation process of the Federal government’s energy white paper in 2009.


Chapter 1: Response to Energy White Paper discussion papers
Latest crude oil peak graphs, Australian oil decline, analysis of the IEA’s WEO 2008 (27 mb/d of  new capacity has to be developed by 2015, relative to 2007, just to keep production flat)

Chapter 2: Peak oil and the financial crisis
Colin Campbell’s 2005 prediction of a financial crisis on youtube,  IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol ’s list of “IFs” to keep oil production at required levels, Prof. Steve Keen’s debt watch

Chapter 3: Interdependencies between peak oil and global warming
The worst case scenario is that by the time the world wakes up what global warming really means all projects with the objective to reduce CO2 emissions may get stuck in diesel shortages

Chapter 4: Critique of ACIL Tasman’s Liquid Fuel Vulnerability Assessment  (November 2008)
which can be found under “related pages”. This report sees peak oil  as “some decades away and will occur beyond 2020″, which is a strange statement because the peak could occur in  2021 and then it is not decades away. The report did not consider the IEA WEO 2008 with its detailed decline rate analysis which was published in the same month.. Apparently it is attempted to take the issue of peak oil out of the energy white paper altogether.
This flawed assessment is debunked in all its main statements.

iea_weo2008_analysis_declineexistingfields_reserves Example: An analysis of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 shows that – relative to 2007 – around 27 mb/d of additional capacity have to be developed just to keep production flat:

Note that 79% of global reserves are already under production, but yielding only declining production. Remaining reserves are from the Middle East, from expensive off-shore fields or from the Former Soviet Union.

Chapter 5: 10 point action program
#1 Public education program on peak oil and global warming
#2: Build Strategic Oil Reserve and pass legislation to set aside Australian oil and gas fields as refinery feed stock for fuel supplies used in vital infrastructure projects
#3: No more business as usual: moratorium on new freeways, airport and port expansions, car-dependent shopping centres and subdivisions
#4: Develop compressed natural gas (CNG) as an alternative transport fuel for buses, trucks, construction and mining machinery. Priority over LNG exports
#5: Abandon unrealistic car dreams
#6: Replacement – retrofit program for all coal fired power plants
#7: Drastic power down and energy efficiency. Permanent Earth Hour
#8: Bio fuels to run farming machinery, trucks and other vehicles to transport agricultural produce and implements; revive rural rail lines
#9: Interstate rail development and electrification; both passenger and freight; replace domestic flights with night trains; roll-on/roll-off intermodal trains for trucks, coastal shipping for freight
#10: Re-industrialisation of Australia on the basis of renewable energies; focus on essential tools, products and parts

Read more….

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