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Oil Price

Megaprojects Increments: next oil crunch 2012

In this 2nd article on the ASPO 2010 conference we have a look at Chris Skrebowski’s graphs

http://www.aspousa.org/2010presentationfiles/10-8-2010_aspousa_PeakOilPicture_Skrebowski_C.pdf

in which he uses a list of oil megaprojects (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects) to calculate additional oil production capacities for the next years, comparing them with the decline in existing fields:

megaprojects_skrebowski_aspo_usa_2007_2015

The year in which net capacity additions intersect with a worsening depletion curve is 2012. Another critical year is 2014 after which the current production plateau comes to an end. These are the details by type of oil:

megaprojects_increments_2009_2015_iea

Chris rightly predicted the 2008 oil crunch in April 2005:

Interview with Julian Darley

Chris: “It certainly looks as though after about 2008 it really doesn’t add up”

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/5266

The overall outlook of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy shows there are many “unidentified” projects which are needed to offset the decline after 2012.

eia_aeo2009_slide8

In order to show what that means, this is a graph from the 2009  ASPO conference:

next_oil_price_shock

David Cohen writes: “I find it likely that we revisit the 2008 nightmare over and over again in future years”

http://aspo-usa.com/2009proceedings/Dave_Cohen_Oct_12_2009.pdf

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