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Oil importers outside Chindia to save 1/3 by 2015, says US petroleum geologist at ASPO conference

At the October 2010 ASPO conference http://www.aspousa.org/worldoil2010/ US petroleum geologist Jeffrey Brown http://www.aspousa.org/worldoil2010/speakers.cfm?bid=1022 presented a slide show titled:

“Peak oil versus peak net exports – which should we be more concerned about?”

http://www.aspousa.org/2010presentationfiles/10-7-2010_aspousa_TrackBNetExports_Brown_J.pdf

This is a summary of his findings:

(1) The net export decline rate tends to exceed the production decline rate

(2) The net export decline rate tends to accelerate with time

(3) Net export declines tend to be “Front-end loaded,” with the bulk of post-peak net exports being shipped early in the decline phase

net_oil_exports_top5_jeoffrey_brown_aspo_2010 net_export_fuel_gauge_jeffrey_brown_aspo2010 global_net_oil_exports_2scenarios_2015__jeffrey_brown

Taking into account the growth in consumption by India and China, Jeff concludes:

(a) If we extrapolate the 2005 to 2009 rate of increase in consumption by the exporting countries out to 2015 and

(b) if we extrapolate Chindia’s 2005 to 2009 rate of increase in net imports out to 2015, and

(c) if we assume a very slight production decline among the exporting countries (0.5%/year from 2005 to 2015),

THEN for every three barrels of oil that non-Chindia countries (net) imported in 2005, they would have to make do with two barrels in 2015.

This is an earlier post on Jeoff Brown:

Half of post 2005 net oil exports from top 5 exporters will be gone by 2013

http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=649

What did the Australian Resource Minister say in February 2008?

21/2/2008
MARTIN FERGUSON, RESOURCES MINISTER: Australia’s got a huge challenge. We’ve got huge problems on the trade front, but also importantly, a real problem in terms of energy security and our economic future by 2015.

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2169087.htm

Everyone seems to have forgotten this warning, including the very government he works in. Not to mention the State governments. In the latest submission by the New South Wales government to Infrastructure Australia

http://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/infrastructure-australia-submission-august-2010

peak oil is mentioned several times but we then find this table on traffic to and from Sydney airport, increasing by 64% by 2016

sydney_airport_trip_generation_2006_2026

Let’s superimpose the above traffic projection (as part of the M5 East Expansion project proposal) with a 33% decline of Australia’s 2005/06  petroleum imports, taken from the Australian Petroleum Statistics http://www.ret.gov.au/resources/fuels/aps/pages/default.aspx

sydney_airport_traffic_vs_petroleum_import_decline_33pct_2016

The trends go into completely opposite directions. Will Treasury and the banks who are supposed to contribute in public private partnerships to various motorway projects finally make a proper risk analysis?

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