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Australia in last quarter of its oil age


Australia is in the last quarter of its oil age. Geoscience Australia submitted oil production projections to the Senate Inquiry on oil supplies in 2005/06, showing 3 scenarios.

Actual data of the last 3 years show we are following the 90% probability curve, the lowest of the projections:

Crude oil is declining even steeper. Please note that only 5 % of condensate can be used in Australian refineries. I distributed these graphs on a flyer to delegates of the ALP conference in Darling Harbour on 31st July 2009. The full version of this paper can be downloaded from here:

This decline happens as global net oil exports have peaked.

eia_net_oil_exports A large group of exporters already peaked in the late 1990s, a powerful, irreversible trend. Russia and Saudi Arabia lifted everything up to a 2005 peak. Since then, a smaller group of countries was more or less able to compensate decline elsewhere but this group is also on peak as one of the crude oil graphs show. So when that peak gets established, the whole system will slide down on the given decline path of the other group, at a round 1 mb/d every year. Assuming current trends, there will be 10% less net oil exports available by 2015. Data are from the EIA

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