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Saudi Aramco’s crude oil exports peaked in 2005

Saudi Aramco’s crude oil exports have peaked in 2005 at 2,622 million barrels and declined by 21.4% to 2,061 mb in 2009. Refined products and natural gas liquids (NGL) exports have also peaked in 2005 and then declined by 25.8 % and 4.1% respectively. Most of the decline happened between 2008 and 2009.


Saudi Aramco publishes oil export data in its annual series “Facts and Figures”

The above table is from the 2009 report with 2001 and 2002 pasted into it from earlier versions of the report.

Let’s see how that compares to the total Saudi crude production:


Total Saudi crude production declined from 3,486 million barrels in 2005 to 3,011 mb in 2009. This is 13.6 % over 4 years. Therefore, the decline rate of exports was 57 % higher (21.4/13.6 = 1.57). This is due to a higher domestic consumption and confirms what Westexas from the oildrum always repeats in his comments like the most recent on 28/6/2010:

“Given a production decline in an oil exporting country, there are three characteristics of net export declines:

(1) The net export decline rate tends to exceed the production decline rate;

(2) The net export decline rate tends to accelerate with time and

(3) The bulk of post-peak Cumulative Net Oil Exports (CNOE) are shipped early in the decline phase (the initial CNOE depletion rate tends to exceed the net export decline rate).”

Please note that global crude oil production declined by only 2 % during the same period as shown in this graph:

from this post:

Back to the 2004 future, but with double the oil price

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