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fig_1d_2010_12 fig_1c_2010_12 fig7_2010_12 fig8_opec_2010_12

Oil Price

World hangs on offshore drip

Since a  May 2009 minimum of 71,524 kb/d crude oil production has recovered by 2 mb/d in February 2010 and is now basically back to where it was at the beginning of 2005, for that time of the year.

fig_1d_2010_02

Let’s have a look at that hump on the bumpy production plateau which developed since a recession induced minimum in the 1st half of 2009. I apply the incremental production method to July 2008, the monthly production peak and display only production changes since then.

incremental_crude_7_2008_to_02_2010

We see:

(a) Saudi Arabia sharply reduced production by almost 2 mb/d (negative swing producer).  Before the July 2008 peak the Saudis were able to increase production in 2007/08 by around 1 mb/d but could not produce more to keep oil prices down. 1 mb/d is most likely the spare capacity.

(b) under the line with triangle markers we have countries which are past their peak. Decline around 800 kb/d over 20 months.

(c) A wedge with growing oil production from Kazakhstan, Brazil, Azerbaijan, Russia, Nigeria, China, Canada and Iraq. This is mainly from offshore.

(d) The US was able to slightly increase production after those hurricanes in 2008. The following graph from the EIA shows in more detail what happens with US offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico

mcrfp3fm2m

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFP3FM2&f=M

Production is not very stable and is severely impacted upon by hurricanes. Just like the Piper Alpha accident

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piper_Alpha

in the North Sea, in 1988, after the 1st UK peak, the Deep Horizon blow out will mean a delay in further offshore development. More details can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6470#more

Oil rig workers say they were under pressure

The huge explosions on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico came after BP ordered a faster pace of drilling, a rig worker has told the American 60 Minutes program.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/oil-rig-workers-say-they-were-under-pressure-20100517-v9fk.html

The program can be viewed here:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/05/16/60minutes/main6490087.shtml

Earth observatory:

Oil Slick in the Gulf of Mexico

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=44006&src=eoa-iotd

Oil workers are risking and losing their lives and what have we done with 133 Gb of oil since February 2005? Turned it into CO2. Have we used this precious liquid for a strategy “away from oil”?  No. In the contrary.

1/3/2010
Hunter Expressway: yet another peak oil ignorant project
http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=1203

28/3/2010
Report Card 2009 (part 3) Nation Building Program spends only 23% on rail, long list of motorways
http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=1282

Drill, baby, drill.

PETROLEUM EXPLORATION & EXPORTS: NEW FRONTIERS

The Minister for Resources and Energy, Martin Ferguson AM MP, has launched the 2010 Offshore Petroleum Exploration Acreage Release at the annual Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) conference in Brisbane.

http://minister.ret.gov.au/TheHonMartinFergusonMP/Pages/PETROLEUMEXPLORATIONEXPORTSNEWFRONTIERS.aspx.html

Once the offshore peak is established, it’s downhill from there. What is the plan B for declining oil production?

Sleep, baby, sleep

1 comment to World hangs on offshore drip

  • アバクロ 福岡

    アバクロ 福岡…

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