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opec_non_opec_2010_04 non_opec_crude_2010_04 fig8_opec_2010_04 fig7_2010_04

Saudi Aramco’s crude oil exports peaked in 2005

Saudi Aramco’s crude oil exports have peaked in 2005 at 2,622 million barrels and declined by 21.4% to 2,061 mb in 2009. Refined products and natural gas liquids (NGL) exports have also peaked in 2005 and then declined by 25.8 % and 4.1% respectively. Most of the decline happened between 2008 and 2009.

Saudi Aramco publishes [...]

Saudi King ordered oil exploration to cease. But will it matter?

Saudi Arabia seems to jump on the bandwagon of a rethink on oil exploration following the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, packaging it in an apparently wise policy of resource conservation. But this article shows that the Saudi exploration ban will have no impact as discoveries in the last years were negligible anyway. [...]

OPEC going sideways; not a good time for oil importers

The IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report 2010

http://www.iea.org/W/bookshop/add.aspx?id=397

sees OPEC’s capacities increase 1.94 mb/d by 2015. But will production also increase?

Let’s put the table “Estimated Average Sustainable Crude Production Capacity” from page 82 into some graphs. We start with the decline.

Although the report mentions a whopping  7.1 mb/d decline until 2015 (at field level), at country [...]

IEA: Iran’s crude oil production to decline by 700 kb/d by 2015; budget neutral oil price $130 a barrel

The new IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report 2010
http://www.iea.org/W/bookshop/add.aspx?id=397

estimates Iran’s oil production capacity will decline by 700 Kb/d by 2015.  The above graph shows the  change of crude oil capacities between 2015 and 2009, for various OPEC countries.

Assuming continuing domestic growth of oil consumption for a 70 million population  this means that Iran’s oil exports [...]